Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Lakers Need a Point Guard most of all, not Kevin Love or Dwight Howard


The Lakers should check the PER ratings for last season. Sort by "point guard." Search for the Lakers. They come up at 60 and 61st. There are 30 teams in the NBA. Do the math. Most teams have one starting point guard and a backup point guard. The Lakers don't have the worst starting point guard. They have two of the worst backup point guards in the NBA. In other words, the worst point guards in the NBA, period. For example, had the Lakers acquired Luke Ridnour rather than Steve Blake, they might have won another championship. 

By far, the Lakers' weakest position has been point guard. According to 82games.com, the Lakers PER ratings for each position:

PG 8.8
SG 20.7
SF 14.1
PF 20.5
C 22.9

Let that sink in. As I've outlined in my previous post, a PER rating of 15.0 is about the average for an NBA player (hello, Dorell Wright). A PER of 20 is where all-stars usually begin, and anything approaching 25 is superstar level. To make the numbers a little bit clear, Kobe's PER rating at shooting guard was around 24, but brought down because Shannon Brown shared minutes at his position. Kobe also played a little small forward, boosting Artest's PER around 11. So small forward production has been overall a little below average. SG, PF, and C? All-star level, with the help of Lamar Odom who's kept the PER ratings high at PF. 

But let's get to the elephantiasis in the waiting room. POINT GUARD. A collective PER rating of not even 9. Derek Fisher (8.9) and Steve Blake (7.5) were, again, the worst point guard rotation in the league. Shannon Brown was hardly better, at a PER of 9.6 as the Lakers point guard (newsflash: Shannon Brown is not a point guard).

There's been much talk about Dwight Howard as a potential Laker, and recently, Kevin Love.

But one can get too caught up on Gasol's troubles in the postseason.  Over the course of the season, Gasol was rock solid at 19 points and 10 rebounds...to show how consistent he was, those were about the same numbers for the past 4 years as a Laker, in fact, over his career. In the sweep courtesty of the Dallas Mavericks, Gasol put up 13 points and 9 rebounds (14 and 7 in the first-round win over the Hornets). Without a doubt, he didn't play up to his standards. But that wasn't even the biggest problem.

The biggest problem is that our point guards played to their standards, which has been the worst in the NBA. This is an indictment on the Lakers ownership, management, and coaching staff. You've known this all season; why didn't you do anything about it?

The most significant move the Lakers can make to return to dominance is extremely simple.

Get the best Point Guard you can. Get one who can produce. Get one who would put pressure on the opponent, one who could dictate the tempo of the game.

The truth is, as good as Dirk Nowitzki was against the Lakers, he was expected to play at that level. Our team has all-stars too. That doesn't explain why the Lakers were swept. The huge disparity in production at point guard does.

Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, JJ Barea...those small guards absolutely destroyed the Fisher, Blake, and Brown. That was the biggest difference in the series.

Kevin Love doesn't make sense. He produces at a comparable level to Gasol; also his stats may be inflated because he plays on a terrible team, steals rebounds from his teammates, and hasn't proven a thing in the playoffs. He could very well be worse than Gasol, that's no improvement. What's the point?

On the hand, if Pau Gasol is traded, Odom could step in and if he keeps up his play from last year, he can still produce at a borderline all-star at power forward. The small drop from Gasol to Odom does not compare to the huge gain from Fisher/Blake to a star point guard. And the Lakers will have a tremendous advantage at 4 out of 5 positions.

It's incredibly simple. There's no bigger swing from negative to positive, no bigger bang for the buck, no better single move than to upgrade point guard.

The Lakers need to do it.

Next post? The only real candidate to take the Lakers to the next level. Stay tuned.



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